On reliability and statistical research: Muhlenberg Institute of Public Opinion
The C-level of the Trexler Library holds many secrets... If you’ve ever truly explored its corridors, chances are you’ve run into a room full of cubicles, telephones and computer screens. This is political science territory—otherwise known as the Polling Institute.
According to their mission statement, “The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion is a state of the art public opinion research center that conducts scientific based survey research projects of public policy and political issues throughout the Lehigh Valley and Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.”
By conducting surveys through phone calls, collecting research data, and organizing and analyzing that data in a program called SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences), student employees are able to offer political predictions and statistics, along with the advising of the Polling Institute’s Manager, Dr. Christopher Borick.
“Our biggest ongoing research project is our partnership with the University of Michigan on the National Surveys on Energy and the Environment,” said Dr. Borick. “Since this initiative was started in 2008, we have conducted over nearly 15,000 interviews of Americans regarding their views on climate change, renewable energy, and environmental policies.”
The Polling Institute’s employee base is mostly comprised of students offering an excellent opportunity for anyone on campus, not just Political Science majors, to gain professional experience and contribute to nationally cited research results.
Muhlenberg’s name may popup in more research data than one might think, with “numerous major media outlets including the BBC, New York Times, Washington Post, The Guardian, CBS, NBC and ABC,” citing their data, according to Dr. Borick. “The Institute’s work has been used in dozens of scholarly journal articles, government reports and testimony in Washington DC and Harrisburg. On the local level, research conducted by the Institute has been used by governments, schools and nonprofits to help these organizations develop and implement policies.”
“I’m a Political Science major and what I focus on in a lot of my classes is the theory work like political intrigue and political ideologies. It was really cool for me to get into the empirical, scientific research rather than the ideas of what states should be,” said Michael Dziuba ‘17, who served as an intern at the Polling Institute last fall. “I’m not saying I prefer one over the other, but it was really cool for me to sort of round those out.”
While the surveys deal with a diverse range of topics, such as the public’s opinion on the Affordable Care Act or even “mental health matters,” the Polling Institute’s main focus rests on that of public policies.
“This spring, we are conducting our annual Pennsylvania Public Health Survey in conjunction with the Public Health Program at the college,” said Dr. Borick. “In this research, which is in its sixth year of operation, students in Public Health Policy courses along with the staff of the Institute field a survey on key health related issues facing Pennsylvanians.”
By implementing a research strategy called “probability based polling,” the Polling Institute aims to provide anyone in the interview pool an even chance of being interviewed. This method ensures a wide range of participation as well as a higher probability of more accurate results.
In light of the recent presidential election, many found the final result to be surprising based on previously collected research data, with the Polling Institute’s predictions proving to be no exception.
Despite their reputation as one of the top research institutes in the nation as well as “a solid record of accuracy in terms of [our] poll results mirroring actual election returns,” the Institute’s 2016 election prediction put Hillary Clinton in a four point lead over Donald Trump, while Trump actually won Pennsylvania by a narrow one percent.
“In light of the election, not even just us, but the institute of polling as a predictive device, there’s been some doubt cast on it and somewhat rightly so. As with anything, it’s obviously more complicated than it appears,” said Dziuba. “As we’ve seen, this election has been anything but common, which I think has a lot more to do with the accuracy of reporting rather than a fundamental flaw within the polling itself.”
The Polling Institute’s contributions not only give Muhlenberg College a spot in the big-name papers and web sites– they add a depth to media that’s reliable, accurate, and useful information in the form of statistical data.
Photos courtesy of Ian Adler